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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar

Trump’s tax cut has not, to date, unleashed a wave of global demand for U.S. dollar assets. In fact, the dollar weakened as prospects for the tax cut—and associated rise in the U.S. federal budget deficit to over 5 percent of U.S. GDP—increased. And it has depreciated further this year (and even more today). Read More

January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

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January 16, 2018

Thailand
Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria

The Treasury's April foreign exchange report should be interesting. Thailand hasn't been included in past foreign exchange reports.  Yet it is likely to meet all three of the criteria set out in the Bennet Amendment for a finding of "manipulation." 

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January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

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